Stats point to Gators

As the SEC Championship approaches, we are bombarded with sports media covering the match up between the 4th ranked Gators and the 1st place Crimson Tide of Alabama. Most of this coverage has, rightfully, praised Florida’s offensive production and recent domination of games. The Gators have outscored opponents 414 – 97 in their last 8 games and have won by at least 4 touchdowns in each.
However, Alabama deserves its share of accolades. They are the nation’s only undefeated power-conference school, and boast one of college football’s toughest defenses.
The game could go either way. Mark Schlabach, of ESPN.com, recently wrote that Bama’s defense will be the deciding factor, stifling the Gator’s offense and leading the Tide to the BCS title game.
Claims like these have some legitimacy, but too often these pundits commit a fatal oversight: they discredit the Gator’s defense for the sake of its offense. Just as Tim Tebow’s prowess as a runner leads to his under appreciation as a passer, the Gator’s #3 ranked offense often eclipses their defense, which ranks 9th in the nation in points allowed, 5th in red zone defense, and 1st in interceptions.
Can Alabama’s defense overcome the Gator’s overall talent? A simple look at this season’s stats can give us an idea.

First, we can look at the most apparent and direct measure of a team’s success on the football field: Points scored and points allowed. (All rankings hereafter are national.) The Gators rank 3rd in points per game (46.3) and 4th in points allowed (12.3). The Tide rank 28th in points scored (32.1) and 3rd in points allowed (11.5).
By averaging one teams’s PPG with the other’s points allowed, we can find the expected point value associated with that match up. According to season averages, the Gators can be expected to score 28.9 points, while the Tide should put up 22.2. Advantage Gators.
If we consider each team’s scoring numbers over October and November, perhaps a better indicator as teams develop chemistry and become comfortable with strategy, the margin widens in Florida’s favor. Restricting stats to the last two months, the Gators can be expected to score 31.1 points, the Tide 19.9. Advantage Gators.

Scores don’t tell the whole story. We might also look at yards gained versus yards allowed as a barometer for a team’s success. Using the same averaging technique we applied to points per game, we can predict the expected outcome in terms of yardage. Considering rushing and passing yards gained versus rushing and passing yards allowed on the season, the Gators offense is expected to produce 348.89 yards, with Alabama expected 323.23. Advantage, albeit slim, to the Gators.
Similarly, when we restrict the considered stats to those of October and November, the gap widens for the gators. UF gets 367 yards, Alabama 331.
Yardage means nothing if points are not realized, and so we can introduce another parameter to put these numbers in perspective. By comparing each team’s total points on the season to total yards gained, we can find the return in terms of points from one yard of offense gained.
One yard for the Gators usually equates to .103 points, and each of Alabama’s yards yields .087 points. Applied to the expected yardage to be gained in Saturday’s matchup, we get a predicted score of 36 – 28, Gators win.

In almost every conceivable projection, Florida comes out the winner over Alabama. The Tide’s defense cannot compensate for Florida’s play on both sides of the ball. Of course, these are just numbers based on past performance, and countless other factors are at play. However, consider these facts:

• Florida ranks 12th in the nation in total rushing yards, yet only 65th in rushing attempts. It is not surprising, then, that the Gators rank 2nd in yards per carry.
• None of UF’s individual players rank even in the top 100 in total rushing yards or number of touches, yet they hold spots #1 (Demps), #3 (Harvin), and #5 (Rainey) in yards per attempt.
• Brandon James ranks 2nd overall in return yards per game (however, Alabama’s Javier Arenas is 1st (yes, he’s Gilbert’s cousin)).
• Florida is 3rd in blocked kicks (7), Alabama is 25th (3).
• Florida is 2nd in interceptions (23), Alabama is 26th (15).
• Florida has 30 sacks on the season, Alabama has 24. Both teams recovered 9 fumbles.
• Florida is 1st in turnover margin (+1.75/game).
• Florida’s kickers are a perfect 10 for 10 on field goals this year.
• Florida’s 8th ranked red zone offense scores 91% of the time, Alabama’s is 55th at 83%.
• Florida’s 5th ranked red zone defense allows scores 67% of the time, Alabama’s is 25th at 76%